The Computational Monopoly: Who Rules the AI World?

The New York Times published an article about how AI computational power is distributed globally.

The real power landscape:

• USA (Microsoft, AWS, Google) - 63% of all capacity

• China (Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent) - 28%

• Europe - a pitiful 4%

• The rest of the world - 5%

  

Digital feudalism. Only 32 countries have specialized AI data centers, while the rest are forced to rent from tech lords.

The most cynical part: even US political allies like Kenya don't get preferential GPU access. Nvidia is controlled geopolitically more strictly than oil.

Of course there are attempts to build "sovereign AI infrastructures" - Brazil, India, and the EU are investing billions. Africa is launching its first major center with Nvidia chips, but it only covers 10-20% of demand.

It seems those who didn't manage to build computational infrastructure today will remain technological vassals for decades.

Computing has become the new gold. Only the deposits are controlled by very few.

The Energy War Behind the Silicon Curtain

What's especially striking about this race isn't just chip distribution, but the energy apocalypse unfolding behind the scenes. Goldman Sachs predicts data center energy consumption will grow 160% by 2030. RAND Corporation calculated that AI centers will need an additional 10 gigawatts in 2025 alone - more than the entire state of Utah consumes.

By 2027, that figure will grow to 68 gigawatts. Almost doubling in two years.

Imagine the scale. We're not just talking about technological supremacy - we're talking about nations' physical ability to provide enough electricity to power the digital future. Countries without energy infrastructure are automatically eliminated from the game.

Nvidia: The New OPEC of the Digital Era

Nvidia has become more than just a chip manufacturer - it's become the regulator of the global AI market. With a 65% market share in data center AI chips in 2023, the company essentially dictates the rules to everyone else.

But what's most interesting is how American export restrictions turned Nvidia's sales into a geopolitical weapon. In July 2025, Nvidia announced resuming sales of its H20 chips to China, but only after "assurances from the US government." Sales had been frozen since April - despite China bringing the company $12-15 billion annually.

Imagine: the world's largest economy waits for Washington's permission to buy processors. And gets watered-down versions with limited performance. This isn't trade - it's a technological blockade.

According to CEO Jensen Huang, revenues from China fell by half compared to pre-crisis levels. But the Chinese aren't sitting idle: CSIS data shows large-scale H100 chip smuggling schemes operational by 2024. Eight different smuggling networks, whose participants gave interviews to The Information journalists.

Black market processors - welcome to cyberpunk reality 2025.

European Capitulation

Four percent. Europe - cradle of the industrial revolution, home to SAP, ASML, and Siemens - controls a pathetic 4% of global AI capacity.

This isn't just statistics, it's a death sentence for European technological sovereignty. While Brussels debated GDPR and AI ethics, Americans and Chinese built computational empires.

The EU is now investing hundreds of billions trying to catch up, but the moment has passed. Goldman Sachs forecasts nearly €850 billion in renewable energy investments over the next decade just to power future data centers.

But infrastructure takes years to build, while tech cycles are measured in months. By the time European AI centers are running at full capacity, the leaders will be two chip generations ahead.

Digital Colonies

The rest of the world - 5%. Africa, Latin America, most of Asia - all together control less computing power than the state of California.

Kenya's example is particularly telling. The country is considered a US ally, actively develops its digital economy, and has one of Africa's most dynamic IT sectors. But access to advanced GPUs? Sorry, same queue as everyone else. No perks. No discounts. Pay full price or rent capacity from tech giants.

This creates a vicious cycle: without their own computing power, countries can't develop their own AI models; without their own models, they remain dependent on Western and Chinese platforms; without technological independence, they can't develop high-tech industries.

Africa's first major AI center with Nvidia chips is an important step, but it covers at most 20% of continental demand. And demand is growing exponentially.

Sovereign Ambitions vs Economic Reality

Everyone talks about "sovereign clouds" and "national AI strategies." Brazil invests billions in its own infrastructure. India launches ambitious programs. Even relatively small countries try to create at least minimal computing capacity.

But reality is harsh: modern AI data centers cost billions of dollars, and technologies become obsolete so quickly that investments can depreciate within a couple of years.

PwC warns: in 2025, equilibrium between supply and demand for AI computing won't materialize. The deficit will only grow. And this means prices for computing capacity rental will skyrocket.

The New Cold War

Essentially, we're witnessing the formation of a new bipolar world - an American-Chinese duopoly in AI computing. 91% of all capacity is controlled by two powers that increasingly view each other as strategic adversaries.

Everyone else - including traditional US allies - finds themselves in the role of supplicants. Access to cutting-edge technology is now determined not by economic considerations, but by geopolitical loyalty.

And most troubling: unlike oil or gas, computing power can't simply be bought on the spot market. It's a strategic resource requiring long-term investments, specialized infrastructure, and most importantly, access to advanced chips.

And chips are controlled by one player. Who plays by Washington's rules.

What's Next?

The window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Every month of delay in building computational infrastructure means years of technological lag in the future.

Countries that don't manage to build their own AI capacity in the next 2-3 years risk becoming digital colonies for decades to come. Because the next generation of AI will require even more computing power, even more energy, even more specialized infrastructure.

Computing really has become the new gold. But the deposits are already divided. And no new ones are in sight.